“When did you know?”
Clearly not a scientific study, merely curiosity and a hunch.
The men and women I asked largely fell into two categories: those who split up within the first five years and those whose marriages lasted 15-25 years. But, perhaps astonishing, perhaps not, both groups sang a very similar refrain: they knew within the first year.
Those who divorced in under five years often reported:
“After a year or so I knew, but wanted to wait and see because after everything we’d just been through — the wedding, the party, the gifts… it just seemed too horrible to call it quits, so I let it play out. I was hopeful we would figure it out.”
Those who stayed married for 15 to 25 years echoed the same sentiment:
“I knew after about a year, and I can’t believe I stuck with it — I don’t know why I did, but I did.”
Then, when I was in HR, I started asking leaders who’d fired someone the same question:
“When did you know you made a mistake?”
And lo and behold, they usually answered:
“Within the first few weeks I knew I’d made a mistake. But after getting headcount approved, the selection process, comp negotiations, and finally getting someone in, then orientation and introducing them — the idea that I had made a mistake was just too dreadful, so I let it play out and hoped for the best.”
I know many management philosophers who would say that you can diligently counsel and manage performance in ways that will improve how an individual performs in a role, but if you ask people how often they had an early feeling someone wasn’t right for the job and the data to suggest an error had been made, and then succeeded in turning the situation around through coaching, management and assorted other best practices — well, the win rate is usually a dispiriting one or two out of ten.
Consider this a call to cut ties with the unwarranted optimism that clouds judgment. Or the sunk cost fallacy. When faced with a decision that feels off from the start, don’t wait for time to prove you right. Whether it’s a marriage on the rocks or a hire gone awry, the principle remains the same: early doubts need to be heard and heeded. Act swiftly, decisively, and with the confidence of someone who knows that the first few months frequently tells as much as the subsequent ten years ever will. Yes, it’s true you will sacrifice the two out of ten you might have salvaged but you never know which those are at the outset and the business cost of carrying the ones that can’t be fixed is too high to justify the value of the precious few you can turn around. The true measure of leadership here isn’t how long you can endure a mistake, but how quickly you can recognize and rectify it. Simply put, “Hire slowly and fire quickly.”
Sincerely,
Gary Rich